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Deal or no deal? Will MPs approve an agreement? And what about a second referendum?
英国能达成协议吗?国会议员们会通过某项协议吗?英国会进行二次公投吗?
These are the burning questions looming over the UK.
这是英国当下面临的燃眉之急。
And to make things more complicated, they all point to an even bigger question - can Brexit be stopped?
更让人头疼的是,这些问题都指向一个更严峻的问题——英国能终止脱欧进程吗?
Brexit Day, March 29, 2019, is fast approaching. And the UK and EU have yet to agree a deal.
英国彻底脱欧的日子——2019年3月29日——即将到来,但英国与欧盟仍未达成一致协议。
In October, Theresa May and EU leaders are meeting again in Brussels to try to forge an agreement.
十月,特蕾莎·梅将再次与欧盟领导人在布鲁塞尔会晤,尝试达成一项协议。
But several obstacles remain, notably the Irish border issue.
但他们仍需面对一些障碍,尤其是爱尔兰边境问题。
If they fail, there will be one last chance to reach a pact at a special summit in November.
如果他们届时未能达成协议,那最后的机会就是11月的特别峰会。
And if that fails, well, there’s a chance the UK could crash out of the EU without any pact. But that would be catastrophic.
如果到时仍未达成协议。英国很可能要在没有任何协议的背景下脱欧,那将是一场灾难。
The pound would plummet, and officials have warned that house prices could fall by a third.
英镑将会暴跌。有官员警告称英国房价将大跌三分之一。
So the consensus has long been that a pact will be agreed between Britain and the EU in Brussels.
因此,长期以来人们的共识是:英国和欧盟将在布鲁塞尔达成某项协议。
The bigger question is what happens if Mrs. May brings any agreement back to Westminster?
更大的问题是,即使梅首相将协议带回了威斯敏斯特(英国议会),接下来又会如何呢。
Will it be approved by the 650 MPs who sit in the House of Commons?
下议院的650名议员会通过这项协议吗?
If the prime minister wins a Commons vote in late November or early December, that would be the end of the matter. Britain will leave.
如果下议院在11月末或12月初通过了这项协议,那么事情到此为止,英国将正式脱欧。
But her working majority is wafer thin. And the opposition Labour party has said it will vote against any deal she does with the EU.
但梅首相的赢面不大。反对党工党表示他们将投票反对一切她和欧盟达成的协议。
Then, that’s the hard line conservatives on her own benches who want a cleaner break from Europe than she is proposing.
同时,在她所在的保守党内部,一些强硬派表示他们想要一个更干脆利落的脱欧方案。
They could vote against her, too. So there’s a chance she could lose the vote.
他们也会投反对票。所以梅首相可能会输掉投票。
And if that happens, Parliament and the UK will enter a no-man’s land.
如果这样,整个英国和议会将陷入群龙无首的境地。
What then? Well, the prime minister could resign and Parliament might decide to hold a general election.
接下来呢?首相可能会辞职,议会决定重新大选。
But it’s not clear that this would solve anything.
但目前还不清楚这能否能解决任何问题。
It might well produce the same hung Parliament we saw in 2017, making the Brexit waters as clear as mud.
大选后可能诞生像2017年那样的悬浮议会,使得英国脱欧进程更加迷雾重重。
The strong likelihood, too, is that MPs in Parliament will want to avoid Britain crashing out under any circumstances.
极有可能,国会议员们竭尽全力,保证英国在任何情况下都不至于崩溃。
So that raises the third possibility - that Parliament could decide to let the country vote on a final deal.
这也引出了第三种可能性——议会要求英国全民就最终协议进行投票。
But a people’s vote, as it’s called, has three flaws - first, it’s not clear what the ballot paper would actually ask.
但所谓的全民投票有三个缺点——首先,选票上该问什么问题呢?
Voters could choose between no deal, Mrs. May’s deal, or staying in the EU.
选民可在无协议、梅首相的协议或留在欧盟间做出选择。
Secondly, another referendum would be hugely divisive. Many Leave voters would feel betrayed. And politicians worry about public disorder.
其次,另一场公投结果可能是极度分裂的。许多脱欧选民会觉得遭到了背叛,而政客们则会担心公共秩序混乱。
A third problem is that while Leave voters are becoming lukewarm about Brexit, the shift to remain has not been decisive since 2016.
第三,尽管脱欧选民对脱欧的态度越来越冷淡,但自2016年来,留欧派也未能占绝对上风。
The referendum result was 52-48 percent in favour of leaving the EU.
脱欧公投显示,有52%的选民赞成脱欧。
But most polls since then still only show around 54-46 at best for remaining.
但公投后的多次民意调查显示,留欧派最多占选民总数的54%。
The outcome is impossible to predict.
因此投票结果是难以预测的。
What the prime minister is hoping is that MPs back her deal for fear of something worse.
首相期望,国会议员们为了避免更遭的情况出现而通过她的协议。

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Question:
How many flaws does a people's vote have?
A  3
B  2
C  not mentioned
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